Right-wing populism has seen a resurgence in Europe and the United States in recent years, it is important to understand the implications of this trend within the international arena in the years to come.

Right-wing and far-right nationalist parties make up the majority of several European countries’ parliaments including Switzerland’s Swiss People’s Party, Italy’s Brother’s of Italy and Hungary’s Fidesz. With elections in France scheduled to take place in several weeks, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party has a realistic chance of winning the snap general election. America’s right-wing populist candidate Donald Trump also has a realistic chance of winning the U.S. general election later this year. What are the implications of the surge in right-wing populist party support in the West and could it have dire international consequences? John Kampfner shares his views on the populist  surge and potential international implications. Kampfner affirms “in the United States and Europe, the two regions that are the cradles of democracy … the year ahead is set to be bracing. It is no exaggeration to say that the structures established after World War II, and which have underpinned the Western world for eight decades, will be under threat if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins a second term in November. Whereas his first period in the White House might be regarded as a psychodrama, culminating in the paramilitary assault on Congress shortly after his defeat, this time around, his menace will be far more professional and penetrating. European diplomats in Washington fear a multiplicity of threats—the imposition of blanket tariffs, also known as a trade war; the sacking of thousands of public officials and their replacement with politicized loyalists; and the withdrawal of remaining support for Ukraine and the undermining of NATO … More broadly, a Trump victory would arguably mark the final dismantling of the credibility of Western liberal democracies … The greatest effect that a Trump return could have would be on Europe, accelerating the onward march of the alt right or far right across the continent. Yet that trend will have gained momentum long before Americans go to the polls. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are looking over their shoulders as the second wave of populism affects the conduct of government“ (Kampfner.2023) As Kampfner outlines, a Trump victory would have dire consequences for the U.S. both domestically and abroad, it could have a knock on affect on Europe by accelerating the growing rise of populist parties on the continent and could see the U.S. begin to dismantle its own structures of international cooperation it took nearly a century to establish.

The results of the European Parliament election are indicative of a shift to the right in European politics. As Federica Marsi contends “Far-right parties topped polls in several European countries, but nowhere was the blow as stinging as in France, where National Rally won 31.5 percent of the vote, more than twice that of Macron’s Renaissance party. Alongside the National Rally’s performance in France, the ID group was bolstered by the victory of the Freedom Party of Austria, which scored more than 25 percent of the vote, and the strong performance of the Netherland’s Party for Freedom with more than 17 percent. Despite being the subject of scandals, the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) came in second in Europe’s largest economy with 16 percent of the vote … If far-right and hard-right parties were to unite in a single group, they would become Europe’s largest force behind the EPP. But analysts said this is unlikely with the war in Ukraine being the main dividing line between the Atlanticist ECR and the Russia-leaning ID … “Debates about unifying the groups are not relevant,” Albrecht said. “What we will see is cooperation and coordination between the MEPs” with far-right and hard-right groups operating in unison on common issues, including a tougher stance on migration and measures that free Europe of environmental regulations.” (Marsi.2024) As Marsi has outlined, far-right and right-wing populist candidates made significant gains in the European Parliament elections and signals that their dominance in European politics could continue to rise. Tougher migration stances are an inevitability as right-wing parties continue to gain influence in European governments. Progressive democracy across the European continent will surely be tested if populism establishes itself as the main political wave in the years to come.