Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a meeting to discuss a limited ceasefire deal to bring a halt to hostilities in the ongoing war. Delegations from Moscow and Kyiv are currently on the way to Riyadh to meet with US negotiators to see the deal through.

The deal has yet to be formally agreed as talks are currently underway. As Pjotr Sauer finds, the chances of a successful end to the war are still uncertain, but positive steps to this outcome are underway. Sauer notes ‘Ukraine and Russia have agreed in principle to a limited ceasefire after the US president, Donald Trump, spoke with the countries’ leaders last week. But uncertainty remains about how or when the part-ceasefire will take effect as Ukraine and Russia prepare to send delegations to Riyadh this week for parallel talks with the USA … At present, the two sides remain far apart on what would be acceptable terms for a peace treaty, with no sign that Putin has relinquished any of his maximalist aims in the war against Ukraine. Ukraine has laid out a step-by-step plan for peace: first, a full and immediate ceasefire, followed by negotiations toward a durable peace deal underpinned by western security guarantees. Russia, meanwhile, insists that any agreement must be comprehensive from the outset, combining a ceasefire with long-term conditions in a single package – rejecting any phased approach.’ (Sauer.2025) As Sauer has put forth, there is still uncertainty surrounding the feasibility of the ceasefire deal. Whether this deal can realistically be implemented to bring an end to the war is questionable. Both sides are still far apart on acceptable terms for their respective nations and until a solid compromise can be found that both nations agree to, the talks may not result in lasting peace for the region.

Further reasons for skepticism surrounding the ceasefire deal are due to the fact that Russia continues strikes on Ukraine as recent as this week. Pjotr Sauer recounts how ‘waves of Russian drones pounded the Ukrainian port city of Odesa overnight, setting it ablaze in an attack that underscored Moscow’s intent to continue aerial assaults despite agreeing to a temporary pause in strikes on energy infrastructure … A senior Ukrainian official told AFP that Ukraine hoped to secure a part-ceasefire at the talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday. “We still want to agree on a ceasefire, at least on what we have proposed,” the source said, referring to calls for a halt to strikes on energy sites, civilian infrastructure and attacks in the Black Sea.The source added it was “unclear” when any ceasefire could be implemented. “There have been no reciprocal steps from the Russians,” they said. “We need to agree on the main thing: what objects and what control. The Americans have enormous intelligence capabilities, so they see a lot,” they added … Moscow’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, told Russia’s Channel One on Thursday evening that Ukraine had breached a proposed 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure by striking a Russian oil depot on Tuesday night, though that strike came before Zelenskyy’s call with Trump the next day where he agreed in principle to the US-brokered proposal. The Ukrainian side has accused Russia of violating its pledges. Hours after Putin’s phone call with Trump on Tuesday, Zelenskyy said there had been “hits, specifically on civilian infrastructure”, including a hospital in Sumy. Moscow appeared to be exploiting the window before any ceasefire takes hold, launching drones at Odesa as well as shelling the southern region of Zaporizhzhia.’ (Sauer.2025) As Sauer finds, both Russian and Ukrainian representatives claim attacks on infrastructure from their opponent, despite the ceasefire deal talks. Furthermore, there is sentiment that Russia is utilising the window before any firm ceasefire takes place to ramp up its assault on Ukrainian targets in an opportunistic military offensive.

Whether the ceasefire deal can be implemented will rely on US negotiators setting out a comprehensive pathway to lasting peace in the region, allowing provisions for both sides in the deal that safeguard the interests of their nations. This scenario remains unlikely as there does not seem to be a pathway for both parties to have an advantageous position in the proposals. Ultimately one nation, likely the Russian Federation, will receive more favourable terms in the final deal. The weeks and months ahead will demonstrate whether a lasting ceasefire agreement can be reached and whether this can lead to a transition to peace talks to end the conflict.