On April 2nd, 2025, US President Trump announced a 10% tariff on nearly all U.S. trading partners, and an additional individual reciprocal tariff on 57 countries. These tariffs reinforce the economic isolationism the Trump Administration is steering the United States toward, and it could have serious consequences for the global economy. 

As Josh Marcus has found, Trump’s trade war with China in particular could result in a cold war. As Marcus notes ‘The Trump administration’s ongoing tariff battle with China has observers worried that a new Cold War-style power conflict could break out. “What we’re seeing now is the biggest trade war in history,” Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, told The Wall Street Journal. “The risk of the trade war expanding to other domains is quite high.”... China has vowed to “fight to the end” against the tariffs, while the Trump administration has imposed export controls on U.S.-made high-tech computer chips going to China. Beijing said this week it would "take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner" against nations that reach trade agreements with the U.S. that would hurt Chinese interests. "The United States has abused tariffs on all trading partners under the banner of so-called 'equivalence', while also forcing all parties to start so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' negotiations with them,” said China's Commerce Ministry. Meanwhile, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly have not received any direct messages or offers from their Chinese counterparts to make a deal, according to the Journal. Outside of the trade issues, tensions have been ratcheting up between the U.S. and China for some time now, including alleged tit-for-tat cyber attacks between the two nations in recent months, and China conducting large-scale military drills around the U.S.-aligned island of Taiwan.’ (Marcus.2025) As Marcus has affirmed, the United States’ bullish stance toward China in particular could see the trade war spill into other territories, with the military situation already on a knife-edge between the two nations surrounding the disputed island of Taiwan. 

The Economist highlights how Trump’s sweeping tariffs may also offer China the opportunity to “woo” the victims of it and further boost its global influence. The Economist asserts how ‘American tariffs complicate China’s relationship with South-East Asia. Officials fear that Chinese goods otherwise bound for America will now be dumped into their own markets. The region was already suffering from a glut of Chinese goods, which is now expected to increase. These will undermine demand for South-East Asian products, and, along with the accompanying blow to global demand, could lead to deflation. One Malaysian official calls this the “second-level trade war”—not between America and Asia, but among the Asian victims of Mr Trump’s tariffs. If ASEAN, which has a free-trade agreement with China, puts up barriers to Chinese exports in response, it will strain the region’s ties with the Asian giant … Even if South-East Asian governments can secure one-off deals with the American president, the hit to global demand will shake economies around the region. Uncertainty over whether Mr Trump will put tariffs back in place or capriciously adjust their levels will leave investors reluctant to back new business in the region. It is a stark contrast with Mr Xi’s visit. Unlike America, where policy swings wildly from day to day, rattling markets, Mr Xi is executing a decades-long strategy to slowly bind South-East Asia’s economy more tightly to China’s. It is a plan that carries risks for South-East Asia. But at least it is one the region can count on.’ (The Economist.2025) As the article explores, ASEAN countries have been some of the hardest hit by Trump’s tariffs, and this plays into the hands of China’s strategy to boost its ties to other Asian markets in the region that have previously been economically bound to the United States. If Xi Jinping can successfully woo these ‘victims’ of Trump’s trade war, it would assuredly diminish the US influence over Asian markets and be a major coup for China.

It remains to be seen how the US trade war will develop, with several countries already coming to the table to negotiate new trade deals with the United States. It goes without question that China stands to benefit from the chaos caused by the U.S. administration on global markets, and can seize this opportunity to be a stabilising force for the global economy.