October 23, 2024 - Dissecting the Implications of Yahya Sinwar’s Death
On October 16, 2024, just over a year since Hamas’ attack on October 7th, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in a firefight with the Israeli military. This news brings the Israel-Hamas war to a potential turning point, however many experts are skeptical over peace finally reaching the region.
As Ishaan Tharoor reports ‘After the death of Yahya Sinwar, a raft of political leaders expressed hope for a turning of the page. Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was seen as the architect of the shocking Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, which preceded a year of devastating war that pulverized the Gaza Strip and led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. With Sinwar slain, Israel could claim its biggest scalp of the campaign so far — and, some hoped, consider an end to the hostilities … [However] there is no indication that a truce is imminent. Israel has stepped up its deadly bombardments of Gaza.Vital aid barely trickles into the enclave. Israel continues to bomb alleged Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. In both places, civilian casualties are soaring and calls for a cease-fire go unheeded.’ (Tharoor.2024) As Tharoor has concluded, the death of Sinwar will certainly destabilise Hamas’ leadership and abilities, however Israel has shown no signs of halting their bombardment of Gaza which is still active. Perhaps figures that will inevitably fill the power vacuum left by Sinwar will be more receptive to peace talks but the months to come will prove to be the litmus test for this.
Bret Stephens suggests ways in which this moment can be utilised to finally restore peace to the region. Stephens argues ‘the trick lies in finding a way between two competing imperatives: the need to continue to destroy Hamas as a force that can rule Gaza, but to do so in a way that doesn’t justify, among many Palestinians, its status as a legitimate “resistance” movement. This could be done in various ways. Indefinite Israeli control of Gaza’s border with Egypt will help stop Hamas from rearming and give Israelis greater assurance that the territory will not again become a mortal threat. An offer of safe passage out of Gaza for Hamas fighters and their families can thin the group’s ranks. Creating well-supplied humanitarian safe zones (perhaps administered by NATO security forces) for Gazan women, children, the elderly and men who have passed a security screening can further safeguard civilians and separate them from potential combatants. Finally, an Arab mandate for Palestine … could provide a long-term answer for all sides: a credible Arab-led security force in Gaza; European-led economic reconstruction; a long-term path toward a politically moderate, economically prosperous Palestinian state; closer ties between Israel and friendly Arab states … the belated end of Sinwar’s bloody tyranny marks the dawn of hope.’ (Stephens.2024) As Stephens puts forth, a comprehensive plan to restore security in Gaza is essential, this could be achieved by establishing a permanent Israeli presence on Gaza’s border with Egypt to stem the flow of weapons to Hamas, followed by a credible Arab-led force to restore security to Gaza. These steps could assuredly lead to the formation of a Palestinian state which can peacefully coexist with Israel in the near future, however, at present the Israel-Hamas war shows no signs of abating.