On the 13th of January 2024, Taiwan elected the pro-sovereignty Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party. Given the tensions this election fosters in China-Taiwan relations it is essential to observe the possible outcomes of a Lai Ching-te presidency.

One possible outcome would be an escalation in the dispute over the South China Sea. As the AP have highlighted “Taiwan’s election was seen as having “real and lasting influence on the geopolitical landscape,” said Gabrielle Reid, associate director with the global intelligence consultancy S-RM.

“The outcome of the vote will ultimately determine the nature of ties with China relative to the West and will have strong bearing on the state of play in the South China Sea,”. (AP.2024)

The outcome of this election will no doubt have an impact on disputes over the sovereignty of the island groups in the South China Sea—for which both Taiwan and China claim.

Another possible outcome of the election could be strengthening of ties between the US and Taiwan which would have a knock on effect over US-China relations. As Charles Han Wong and Charles Hutzler of the Wall Street Journal suggest “Taiwan’s election of the presidential candidate China most distrusts puts at risk a fragile detente between Washington and Beijing, threatening another flare-up between the world’s biggest economic and military powers.” (Hutzler.Wong.2024) The US congratulated the incumbent president, however did not explicitly put forward support for the independence of the self-ruling territory claimed by China. Even so, the US response was not well received in China as Malu Cursino and Laura Bicker note “China has accused the US of sending "a gravely wrong signal" to those pushing for Taiwan's independence after Saturday's election result.” (Cursino.Bicker.2024) The next months will provide a better picture on the knock on effects of strengthening ties between the US and Taiwan when the newly elected president is inaugurated in May.