Donald Trump has won re-election as the 47th POTUS, furthermore, the Republican Party has coupled this victory with majority control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. This gives the president-elect substantially more power to enact radical policy change, not to mention the Supreme Court having six of its nine justices appointed by Republican presidents and the potential for more to be appointed during Trump’s second term in the White House. It is important to determine how this election will impact US Foreign Policy over the next four years.

A second Trump presidency undoubtedly raises alarm bells over the United States’ policy towards the Russo-Ukrainian war. As Jillian Kestler-D'Amours argues ‘Trump has said he would resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours of his return to office. “If I’m president, I will have that war settled in one day,” he told a CNN town hall last year … According to Leslie Vinjamuri, the director of the US and Americas programme at the think tank Chatham House in London, “We have to take Trump at face value.” “He assumes that he can strike a deal pretty quickly [and] that he would likely block any further assistance to Ukraine,” she said. For example, there is the possibility that Trump could reach a deal with Putin that excludes Zelenskyy’s input – and could potentially concede quite a lot in terms of Ukraine and its territory, Vinjamuri told Al Jazeera. “There’s also a question of what kind of relationship he would have with Putin and with Russia, and whether that would embolden Russia more generally in the European context – and I think that’s a real concern for a lot of people.”’ (Kestler-D’Amours.2024) As Kestler-D’Amours asserts, a Trump presidency is disturbing news in Kyiv, with the President-elect indicating the halt of funding towards Ukraine. Moreover, any deal negotiated with Putin will likely be heavily accommodating to Russia’s demands leaving Ukraine in a much worse off position in any negotiations.

Trump’s second term will also be a cause of concern for China. Trump’s rumoured pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio is well known for his anti-China stance and has even suggested China is America’s number one enemy. As Shweta Sharma notes, ‘Rubio’s appointment as arguably the most powerful diplomat in the world will likely reshape American foreign policy towards allies and rivals alike—and dealing with China’s continued economic, diplomatic and military rise is set to be one of his top priorities. That Trump moved swiftly to staff his foreign policy and national security team with China hawks is an indication that relations between the two superpowers will deteriorate further. Alongside Rubio as secretary of state, the team … already includes Congressman Mike Waltz as national security adviser and John Ratcliffe as head of the Central Intelligence Agency.’ (Sharma.2024) As Sharma has suggested, Trump’s early picks for key diplomatic roles in the US Government show he has no love lost for China and US foreign policy will likely move in a direction that will further diminish the already fragile Sino-US relations. 

It remains to be seen how Trump’s second term will unfold over the next four years but it goes without question that his election spells great uncertainty for Ukraine’s fate and Sino-US relations going forward.